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That said, while above the 2-month support line near In the meantime, while above the day SMA at The bright metal is looking to retest the two-week highs on the road to recovery, as the US dollar is struggling to recover further ground amid mixed market sentiment and subdued Treasury yields.
Gold sellers will then target the intersection of the SMA four-hour, pivot point one-month S1 and the Fibonacci The TCD Technical Confluences Detector is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc. If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.
The spot is still up 0. Bulls are now looking to build on the momentum beyond the 0. Signs that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook, along with the risk-on impulse continued weighing on the safe-haven US dollar. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hit at even higher rates going forward further benefitted the risk-sensitive kiwi.
Looking at the broader technical picture, the recent recovery from the YTD low has been along an upward sloping channel. This points to a well-established short-term bullish trend and supports prospects for additional gains. Some follow-through buying beyond the aforementioned 0. The momentum could further get extended towards the next relevant hurdle near the 0. On the flip side, any meaningful pullback below the 0. This is followed by the A weekly close above 1. Crude oil prices held steady near a two-month high and continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie.
Apart from this, the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the US dollar exerted downward pressure on the major. Despite worries about softening global economic growth, expectations of demand recovery in China and the impending European Union embargo on Russian oil imports extended support to the black liquid. This added to supply concerns and acted as a tailwind for oil. On the other hand, the USD was pressured by speculations that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle later this year amid the worsening economic outlook.
Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low. This, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed on the safe-haven greenback. Hence, some follow-through decline, towards testing the day SMA, currently around the 1.
From a quarter-on-quarter perspective, 1Q22 GDP rose 0. The upward revision is in line with our call for GDP to grow at 3. The spot is off the lows, tracking the recovery in the US dollar across its main peers. The downside in the major also appears capped amid a minor bounce in the US Treasury yields and positive European equities. Note that the latest slew of US macro data has not been very encouraging and has collaborated with the downside in the buck.
If the latter gives way on a sustained basis, then a test of the wedge lower boundary at The day Relative Strength Index RSI is inching lower below the midline, suggesting that there is scope for additional weakness going forward. Daily closing above that hurdle will confirm a falling wedge breakout, recalling buyers for a fresh run towards the downward-pointing DMA at Ahead of that upside target, the The Australian dollar continued drawing support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish signal that a bigger interest rate hike is still possible in June amid the upside risks to inflation.
Apart from this, the prevalent US dollar selling bias provided an additional boost to the major and contributed to the ongoing bullish move. The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday suggested that the Fed could pause the rate hike cycle after two 50 bps hikes each in June and July amid the worsening economic outlook.
This, in turn, dragged the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, weighed heavily on the buck. Meanwhile, the intraday move up pushed spot prices beyond the 0. Hence, a subsequent strength, towards reclaiming the 0. The momentum could further get extended to the day SMA, around the 0. Gold is trending sideways. Economists at Commerzbank note that the yellow metal is not attracting the attention of investors with risk flows dominating the financial markets.
The pair gained positive traction for the third successive day on Friday - also marking the sixth day of a positive move in the previous seven - and confirmed a bullish breakout through the 1. The momentum pushed spot prices to the highest level since April 26 and was sponsored by the prevalent US dollar selling bias. Doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession led to an extension of the recent decline in the US Treasury bond yields.
In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which, along with the risk-on impulse, dragged the USD to a fresh one month low. That said, diminishing odds for any further interest rate hikes by the Bank of England and the UK-EU impasse over Northern Ireland acted as a headwind for the British pound.
With risk flows dominating the financial markets on Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes registered impressive gains and the dollar continued to lose interest. Although the market mood seems to have turned cautious early Friday, the US Dollar Index trades at its lowest level in a month near the mid Earlier in the day, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said they were expecting Russia's oil production to decline to million tonnes this year from million tonnes in Bloomberg reported on Friday that Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned of dire consequences if they fail to prevent the economy from sliding further and noted that a contraction in the second quarter must be avoided.
Meanwhile, the US and Taiwan are reportedly planning to announce economic talks to deepen their ties, which could be seen as a factor that could cause US-China geopolitical tensions to escalate. The pair remains on track to close the second straight week in positive territory. The data from Australia showed that Retail Sales rose by 0.
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted on Friday that they are not expecting prices to rise sustainably unless accompanied by wage hikes. Gold struggled to gather bullish momentum on Thursday as the benchmark year US Treasury bond yield continued to move up and down near 2.
Gold built on the overnight bounce from the very important day SMA support and edged higher on the last day of the week. The US dollar prolonged its recent bearish trend and dropped to a fresh one-month low on Friday, which, in turn, benefitted the dollar-denominated gold. The speculations were further fueled by Thursday's release of the Prelim US GDP report, which showed that the world's largest economy contracted by a 1. This was seen as a key factor that exerted downward pressure on the buck.
Meanwhile, doubt over the Fed's ability to bring inflation under control without sinking the economy into recession continued dragging the US Treasury bond yields lower. In fact, the yield on the benchmark year US government bond fell to a six-week low, which further undermined the greenback and offered additional support to the non-yielding gold. That said, a positive turnaround in the global risk sentiment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - could act as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
This might hold back bulls from placing aggressive bets. This, along with the US bond yields will influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to gold. Apart from this, traders will take cues from the broader market risk sentiment to grab short-term opportunities on the last day of the week. So far, spot is gaining 0. On the other hand, a breach of 1. Risk appetite remains sluggish during early Friday in Europe as market players struggle for fresh impulses. However, the Euro Stoxx 50 Futures register an advance of 0.
On the same line are the fears of global economic slowdown, mainly due to covid-led lockdown in China and the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Also important will be the Fedspeak and the geopolitical headlines concerning China and Russia. The dollar is set to face a second consecutive week of losses against all G10 currencies. However, economists at ING think that the combination of a material improvement in the global risk environment and further USD-adverse widening of short-term rate differentials is unlikely, and therefore expect the dollar to find a floor soon.
Hungarian forint has hit the weakest levels since the beginning of March. Economists at ING note that the pair could reach its highest level in history if the central bank does not hike rates next week. However, this is far from certain. Thus, market disappointment may lead to further forint weakening to the level, which would be the weakest in history. Thus, we are negative on the forint in the short-term, but we continue to monitor headlines that should unlock the hidden potential of the forint in the second half of the year.
Asked if it would be a one percentage point impact, he said: "Much, much less than that. Asked about a possible windfall tax on electricity generators, "What we want to do and we are going to do urgently is understand the scale of those profits, and then decide on the appropriate next steps.
The pair is currently trading at 1. In the view of economists at ING, the bar to trigger further hawkish repricing in the Bank of England BoE rate expectation curve is quite elevated, Subsequently, the British pound is set to face some pressure from the short-term rate differential side. A consolidation around 0. However, economists at ING expect the pair to move back lower towards the 1. However, a two-week-long symmetrical triangle restricts the immediate moves of the quote. Will US Treasury yields move higher?
Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy for Morgan Stanley, forecasts an inverted yield curve at year-end with two-year Treasury yields reaching 3. At the end of the year, they see the Fed funds target range at 2. With inflation remaining high and growth slowing, discussions of stagflation or outright recession should continue to lead investor debate this year. And ultimately, that should limit the degree to which Treasury yields rise into year-end.
The index accelerates losses and breaks below the The dollar extends the weekly leg lower and threatens to put the In the meantime, a tighter rate path by the Federal Reserve looks more and more priced in, while the elevated inflation narrative and the tight labour market seem to still support further upside in the dollar in the longer run. Escalating geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. Now, the index is retreating 0. On the flip side, the breakout of They note that risk sentiment is the latest driver for the greenback.
Considering advanced prints from CME Group for natural gas futures markets, open interest dropped for the second straight session on Thursday, now by around Volume, instead, rose for the second session in a row, this time by around That daily performance was amidst shrinking open interest, leaving the door open to the continuation of the uptrend in the very near term. Its slide extended to near 1. Economists at Westpac believe that the pair could race higher towards 1. That said, the Swiss currency CHF pair consolidates intraday losses around 0.
The focus is on the dollar side of the equation, therefore, the kiwi could enjoy gains as the greenback may have peaked, economists at ANZ Bank report. However, at the moment they are being overshadowed by growing fears in FX markets of a domestic hard landing and we view that as a potential headwind for the NZD. The odds of upside seem lucrative amid a firmer rebound in the positive market sentiment.
The risk-on impulse is underpinning the risk-sensitive assets and the pound bulls are enjoying liquidity at the cost of the yen bulls. Rising Inflation in the UK area is the major catalyst, which is worrying the pound bulls. The Bank of England BOE is deploying the majority of its quantitative measures to control the soaring inflation. It is worth noting that the BOE raised its interest rate by 25 basis points bps in the first week of May.
As per the market consensus, the BOE could feature a jumbo rate hike in its June monetary policy. Considering the galloping inflationary pressures, a rate hike announcement by 50 bps seems highly required. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen is worried over grounded inflation in its region. And BOJ Governor Harihuko Kuroda believes that the dual combo of price rise and wage hike could stable the inflation at desired levels.
Volume followed suit and rose markedly by around Gold Price is building on the previous rebound on the final trading day of this week. Meanwhile, the prevalent risk sentiment and the end-of-the-week flows could also influence the gold price action. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida again crossed the wires on Friday, via Reuters, by saying, "Aiming to achieve inflation target with BOJ's monetary easing, government's structural reforms, fiscal policy.
Open interest in gold futures markets shrank for yet another session on Thursday, this time by around 2. In the same line, volume dropped by around Prices of the ounce troy of bullion shed ground for the second straight session on Thursday. The move was accompanied by shrinking open interest and volume, which is indicative that a deeper pullback appears out of favour for the time being. A firmer risk-on impulse in the market has strengthened the pound and the shared currency against the greenback, which has dwindled the market participants in choosing the optimal one.
On a broader note, the shared currency bulls look more confident as the asset has remained positive over the last week. The discussions over the decision of an embargo on oil from Russia have resumed and now Hungary is opposing the Russian oil prohibition amid its higher dependency on fossil fuels and energy from Russia.
Well, discussions are still on and its possibility seems sooner now. Inflation is scaling higher in the eurozone and the ECB is still far from its first rate hike after the pandemic. Dutch Central Bank head and ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot stated on Wednesday, that inflation expectations will remain well-anchored at its upper limit and a rate hike by 50 basis points bps is not off the table.
On the pound front, mounting fears of a recession could affect the sterling going forward. The Bank of England BOE has got a laborious task of fixing the inflation mess, which will compel the BOE to remain extremely hawkish on monetary policy for a longer horizon. That said, the Turkish lira TRY pair stays pressured around Adding to the bearish bias is the overbought RSI condition. Should the quote break the Considering the ongoing weakness in the greenback on a broader note, the asset may find offers soon and will resume its downside journey.
The asset is oscillating around critical support of The DXY has printed a fresh monthly low at The Japanese administration is worrying over the anchored price pressures. In response to that, Bank of Japan BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has commented that the price rise should be accompanied by wage hikes in order to sustain inflation at desired levels.
Prices of the three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange LME and the most-traded July copper contract in Shanghai also portray notable gains of late, respectively around 1. Also weighing on the greenback could be the recently downbeat US data. It should be noted that the latest FOMC Minutes and Fedspeak have both confirmed two 50 bps rate hikes, which the market seems to have already priced and hence allows traders to trigger the month-end profit booking moves of the USD.
Though, softer US data may help the red metal to extend the month-end consolidation. That said, the Loonie pair stays depressed at around 1. Meanwhile, the support-turned-resistance line from late April, near 1. Following that, a two-week-old resistance line and the DMA, respectively around 1. Markets in the Asian domain have rebounded strongly after following positive cues from the Western indices. The risk-on impulse has rebounded firmly and investors are pouring funds into the global equities.
Therefore, bulls are enjoying liquidity on a cheerful Friday. The DXY has refreshed its monthly lows at More downside looks possible considering the soaring market mood. On the oil front, a rebound in fossil fuel prices has been witnessed as the expectations of an embargo on oil from Moscow bolstered. The EU urged Hungary to withdraw its opposition to the prohibition of Russian oil imports.
Earlier, Hungary declined the proposal of a sudden ban on Russian oil amid its higher dependency on its energy requirements from the Kremlin. In doing so, the bullion prices print the first daily gains in three while bracing for the key upside hurdle.
Among the risk-negative negative catalysts are headlines suggesting the US-Taiwan ties, which China dislikes. On the same line are the fears of a global recession. Amid these plays, the US year Treasury yields remained indecisive around 2. The cable has remained in the grip of bulls after hitting the monthly lows at 1. On a four-hour scale, the cable has overstepped Usually, overstepping of Also, the asset holds above the EMA near 1.
A minor pullback move towards the EMA at 1. On the flip side, the greenback bulls could regain control if the asset drops below weekly lows at 1. An occurrence of the same will drag the asset towards Despite the latest jump, the RSI 14 line has some room to the north, which in turn favors buyers. However, the SMA level surrounding 0. In a case where the quote rises past 0.
On the contrary, pullback moves remain elusive until staying beyond the previous resistance confluence around 0. Following that, the 0. The global rating institute mentioned that the rising inflation and interest rates will temper the economic growth momentum. While the RBI has projected that the economy will grow 7. Against this backdrop, the US year Treasury yields remain indecisive around 2. The pair has attacked 1. The shared currency bulls are driving the asset strongly higher right from the first auction.
The asset has renewed its monthly highs at 1. The euro bulls are enjoying bids from the market participants on advancing expectations of the first rate hike announcement by the European Central Bank ECB in June. Price pressures are soaring over the last few months and the ECB has yet not stepped up its interest rates like the other Western leaders, which are not taking the bullet anymore. Dutch Central Bank head and ECB Governing Council member Klass Knot stated on Wednesday that inflation expectations will remain well-anchored at its upper limit and a rate hike by 50 basis points bps is not off the table.
The asset is falling like a house of cards on underpinned risk-on impulse in the market. The negative market sentiment has lost its traction and risk-perceived assets are scaling sharply higher. The asset has extended its losses in the Asian session after slipping below the weekly low at The annualized figure is seen as stable at 6. The economic data has come in line with the forecasts of 0. An aligned Retail Sales data with the preliminary estimates have underpinned aussie against the Japanese yen.
Despite soaring inflation and tightening monetary policy, the economy has managed to report decent Retail Sales. The antipodean is also performing better against Tokyo on active risk-on impulse. Positive market sentiment has strengthened the risk-perceived currencies. Investors are betting on more rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA as mounting inflationary pressures are complicating the situation for the households.
Firing oil and commodity prices are affecting the real income of the households and eventually posing challenging tasks for RBA policymakers. The Manufacturing PMI landed at Prices won't rise sustainably, stably unless accompanied by wage hikes. The move lower in the pair is mainly driven by the broad-based US dollar sell-off in Asia, as the Japanese authorities continue with their verbal intervention.
Also adding strength to the bearish bias is the descending RSI 14 line, not oversold. Following that, the Meanwhile, recovery moves remain elusive below a downward sloping trend line from May 16, close to Also challenging the US Dollar Index upside is the previous support line from late March, around In doing so, the Kiwi pair cheers broad US dollar weakness while paying a little heed to softer China data, as well as geopolitical concerns relating to Russia and Taiwan.
Sustained trading beyond the two-week-old rising trend line, around 0. The gold price pared some early losses overnight as investors continued to move out of the US dollar making it cheaper to buy the safe-haven precious metal. Minutes of the Fed's May policy meeting highlighted that most participants favour additional 50 basis point rate hikes at the June and July meetings.
This is arguably a thorn in the side for the gold bugs because higher short-term US interest rates and bond yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which yields nothing. However, US Treasury yields were subdued after the benchmark year note hit a fresh six-week low. Traders and investors will weigh the inflation risks but the concerns are continuing to dissipate as economic data and corporate announcements point to slower growth.
Additionally, the dollar index DXY is set for a second straight weekly decline, making bullion less expensive for buyers. At the time of writing, DXY is down some 0. From a more bearish perspective, analysts at TD Securities argued that ''trend followers have completed their buying program, and still remain long, which argues for additional downside on the horizon as momentum persists to the downside, with the macro narrative sapping investment demand for gold''. This week's candle is bullish and the bulls have corrected to a Technically, multiple levels marked since May 12, near 6.
However, the previous resistance line from early May, close to 6. The US and Taiwan are planning to announce economic talks to deepen their ties, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing unnamed 'people familiar with the matter.
The confirmation of the proposed talks between the US and Taiwan is unlikely to go down well with China, although markets seem to have ignored that for now. In doing so, the Aussie pair fails to justify the Retail Sales data that matched market forecasts. Unless breaking convergence of the DMA and previous resistance line from early April, around 0. The data had failed to move the needle on the Aussie initially but a bid has come in four minutes following the release and it has moved higher to 0.
The stats bureau uses the forward factor method, ensuring that the seasonal factors are not distorted by COVID impacts. The onshore yuan CNY differs from the offshore one CNH in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. In doing so, the cross-currency pair marks another bounce off the DMA. However, the clear downbeat break of the previous support line from mid-March, around 1.
On the contrary, an upside break of the support-turned-resistance line, near 1. However, the pair buyers remain unconvinced until the quote stays below a downward sloping resistance line from early May, close to 1. The asset has remained in the grip of the bears after failing to sustain above the psychological resistance of 1.
A breakdown in the asset is expected after a decisive slippage below weekly lows at 1. The annualized GDP slipped further to On the loonie front, investors have ignored the slippage in the Retail Sales, as reported on Thursday. Higher oil prices will fetch more fund inflows into the loonie region.
In recent trade, the Japanese PM Kishida also commented and said the recent rise in Japanese prices is driven mostly by the global rise in fuel, and raw material costs. He added that the government will proceed with efforts to help raise wages with responsibility. That said, Wall Street benchmarks portrayed the second day of gains whereas the US year Treasury yields remained indecisive around 2. The following illustrates the bullish bias from the daily chart's perspective and the price action on the lower 1-hour time frame.
It was explained that the price was on the verge of a significant correction of bullish impulses. However, cheaper prices may only encourage more bulls to the table and ultimately result in a continuation to the upside in confluence with the bullish outlook on the higher time frames.
The above hourly, 4-hour and daily charts illustrate the bullish bias and validity of the prior analysis. The asset has remained vulnerable for the last two trading weeks and a sheer downside move has been displayed after failing to sustain above the psychological resistance of 1.
Despite the rising odds of a 50 basis point bps interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve Fed , the US dollar index DXY has failed to sustain its glory. The DXY has been hammered sharply by the market participants as investors have discounted the fact that the monetary policy is going to remain tight this year and hopefully next year. The Fed has already provided clues that investors should brace for two more consecutive jumbo rate hikes to anchor the price pressures.
On the Swiss franc front, next week is going to be a busy week for the market participants. The quarterly and yearly figures may improve to 0. Market consensus suggests a downbeat MoM print of 0. We expect retail sales in Australia to rise by 1.
A strong retail beat should give the RBA confidence that taming inflation is its top priority as economic fundamentals are strong. We stick with our call for a 40bps hike by the Bank in June. Westpac forecasts: 1. However, softer consumer sentiment and inflation fears seem to test the outcome. Even so, a convergence of the DMA and previous resistance line from early April, around 0. The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy.
It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish. The DXY attempted to surpass its crucial resistance at The sheet volatility increment in the DXY is compelling for more downside, which could drag the asset lower. The annualized GDP has been recorded at This signals that a peak in price pressure is not so far, which has dampened the demand of the DXY.
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Yen loses momentum in the market amid risk appetite. Technical levels. Risk appetite, a weak dollar and a hawkish Banxico supports MXN's rally. Close above 1. Use all functions of FreshForex economic calendar: you can filter events according to their importance, select a country and time interval.
Personal calendar settings are saved and available on your next visit. See how previous events affected the market and take a step towards better understanding laws of trading and making a profitable strategy. You will find not only a current data but also reviews released prior to news release. Assess the situation in market in 1 minute, choose a favorable day and hour for your trade.
Choose our economic calendar and pursue right trading path! Any influence of fundamentals on the course of trading on the Forex market can be hardly overestimated. Currency pairs are actively respond to any political news, economic events and reports on the state of economic systems. Forex economic calendar is not just a list of random dates, publications, and forecasts which are collected in a convenient form for a trader. This is also a trading tool that can effectively be used for successful trading.
First of all, you need to understand what publication may impact on trading process. Traditionally, the market reacts to the reports on dynamics of GDP, labor market, inflation, state of industrial production. These data usually come out in time known in advance. Before their publication, activity in pairs, associated with this news, declines.
In the currency market, investors are usually willing to act out decisions of the key central banks Fed, ECB, Bank of England and others. These dates are also specified in the Forex trading calendar. Not always a reaction of the currency market to macroeconomic publications is obvious.
If you have such information, which characterizes the state of a particular economy, an investor goes deeper into what is happening in the currency market. Understanding of what is happening in the economic system, a trader can more accurately predict a trend in a currency pair, and optimize a trading strategy. Open an Account. Trading Conditions. Trading Platform.
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Forex news on 22 mtbank forex trainingForex News: 22/03/2022 - Dollar rips higher as traders crank up Fed rate bets
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